Dissecting Democratic Defeat: 25 Years Mired in Stalemate

Our nation’s mired in electoral stalemate. Over the last 25 years, 35 states and DC voted for the same party in every presidential election. Only 15 states swung from one party to another, even once, between elections. The largest popular vote margin during this era barely exceeded 7 percentage points (in 2008).

Narrow electoral wins stymied the ruling party’s ability to enact positive change, as the minority party clung to outrage and obstruction. This chaos and dysfunction strengthened the hand of Republicans over Democrats, in deadlocking policymaking and undermining confidence in government and democracy. And it fueled a rise in individualism and skepticism of government across the ideological spectrum.

Interactive map of recent presidential election results. View here.

To say that Democrats are on the verge of a lasting majority, secured by demographic destiny, is to listen to those who have been wrong in the past. To say that Democrats are on the edge of the electoral abyss, is to overestimate Republicans’ ability to effectively govern and earn the loyalty of voters.

The American people have not irrevocably rejected liberal and progressive policies and politics, but neither have they embraced 21st century liberalism. The majority of Americans have shown they do not believe liberals represent their best interests and that they do not buy into the mix of policies on offer by liberal leaders.

The wrong response is for liberals to condescend and condemn those who voted for Trump and Republicans. Writing off over half of America is self-defeating in a democracy in which all votes count. A better response is to listen and course correct.

In 2008, President Obama swept into the Oval Office as the first Black President. He promised to transform America, and yet, passing legislation and creating a lasting liberal majority proved out of reach. Contrary to predictions at the time, Democrats’ electoral fortunes subsequently worsened, even as America grew more racially diverse.

My next post will show that the 2024 election was a decisive defeat for the Democrats. It was not some vestige of an unfair electoral system, or the result of a cascade of unlucky news stories. It was a total repudiation of Democratic leadership.

Then, the third part of this series will discuss how several root causes weakened the Democratic Party and virtually eradicated any traces of an authentic left-wing. For the fourth and final post, I will close with ideas on where we could go from here.

NOTE: A few phrases in this post were adapted from Walter Cronkite‘s famous editorial on the Tet Offensive and Vietnam War (February 27, 1968 CBS broadcast).

Dissecting Democratic Defeat Blog Series

Part II: A Full-Blown Trouncing

Part III: Where Did We Go Wrong?

Part IV: Where Do We Go from Here?

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